Is it over for plant based meat?

Plant based dollar sales were flat last year

2-min read

Last year I predicted that plant proteins were going to jump the shark .

Stats are coming out that this is happening in plant-based meat.

Plant based meat dollar sales were flat last year after growing 45% the year before.

Whoa.

Plant based org Good Food Institute says supply chain disruptions are to blame. Maybe. Maybe not.

I’m a skeptic of the supply chain argument for two reasons:

1.     Velocity

2.     User adoption

Velocity measures how fast a product turns on the shelf. Plant-based meat’s units SPM (sales per million), a standard velocity metric, decreased 14% in 2021.

Pandemic buying should jolt velocities until products run out. That velocities declined tells me heavy users either didn’t hoard or hoarders didn’t move the needle because they are not a big enough group (plant-based meat is still only 1.4% market share of total retail meat)

Which brings me to my second point, user adoption. The GFI report says,

only 30% of consumers believe that plant-based meat tastes as good as or better than conventional meat. Of consumers who plan to buy plant-based meat less often, 64% say it’s because they prefer the taste of conventional meat. 

Tasting inferior to conventional meat is no good for capturing an audience.

The success of plant-based products does not lie in converting consumers to veganism. The broader alternative protein consumer group are flexitarians (eat both plant-based and animal-based) whom I dub the conscious consumer. Conscious consumers are a large group that generally will try new products that align with their values. They try new products in all kinds of categories, even those where they are not a heavy user.

I have previously explained that growth of new products occurs when they appeal to broader groups. In the case of plant-based meat, the conscious consumer will try it, but if it disappoints on taste they will go back to animal products that make sustainable claims (like regeneratively grown).

Meati promises a superior taste experience. I tried to purchase Meati on its first day of online sales to the public but I was late to the game (products sold out in 2.5 hours according to a source). If chef David Chang, Meati’s Ambassador is any indication, it promises to taste pretty good:

While new entrants like Meati tackle taste, I’ll be anxious to see if it changes the slowing growth trend of plant-based meat.

All my best,

Jennifer

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