The Business of Food

Share this post

Is it over for plant based meat?

jenniferbarney.substack.com

Is it over for plant based meat?

Plant based dollar sales were flat last year

Jennifer Barney
Apr 13, 2022
Share

2-min read

Last year I predicted that plant proteins were going to jump the shark .

Stats are coming out that this is happening in plant-based meat.

Plant based meat dollar sales were flat last year after growing 45% the year before.

Plant-based meat dollar sales 2018 -2021

Whoa.

Plant based org Good Food Institute says supply chain disruptions are to blame. Maybe. Maybe not.

I’m a skeptic of the supply chain argument for two reasons:

1.     Velocity

2.     User adoption

Velocity measures how fast a product turns on the shelf. Plant-based meat’s units SPM (sales per million), a standard velocity metric, decreased 14% in 2021.

Pandemic buying should jolt velocities until products run out. That velocities declined tells me heavy users either didn’t hoard or hoarders didn’t move the needle because they are not a big enough group (plant-based meat is still only 1.4% market share of total retail meat)

Which brings me to my second point, user adoption. The GFI report says,

only 30% of consumers believe that plant-based meat tastes as good as or better than conventional meat. Of consumers who plan to buy plant-based meat less often, 64% say it’s because they prefer the taste of conventional meat. 

Tasting inferior to conventional meat is no good for capturing an audience.

The success of plant-based products does not lie in converting consumers to veganism. The broader alternative protein consumer group are flexitarians (eat both plant-based and animal-based) whom I dub the conscious consumer. Conscious consumers are a large group that generally will try new products that align with their values. They try new products in all kinds of categories, even those where they are not a heavy user.

I have previously explained that growth of new products occurs when they appeal to broader groups. In the case of plant-based meat, the conscious consumer will try it, but if it disappoints on taste they will go back to animal products that make sustainable claims (like regeneratively grown).

Meati promises a superior taste experience. I tried to purchase Meati on its first day of online sales to the public but I was late to the game (products sold out in 2.5 hours according to a source). If chef David Chang, Meati’s Ambassador is any indication, it promises to taste pretty good:

David Chang, chef and Meati brand ambassador

While new entrants like Meati tackle taste, I’ll be anxious to see if it changes the slowing growth trend of plant-based meat.

All my best,

Jennifer


The USDA recently announced a US$1 billion investment in pilot projects that support farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners implementing climate-smart conservation practices. Applicants can submit proposals online.

Share
Comments
Top
New
Community

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Jennifer Barney
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing