Should you reformulate away from eggs?
Who can you sell your small brand to? Plus, what is Millennial rebranding, and more about Amazon
I have it on good authority eggs will be expensive until Q4 2026. But before we get into eggs. A reader asked me about packaging that “panders” to millennials with disposable incomes —> my answer is, there are two things going on.
Why every shop-shop looks exactly the same - Grub Street
What I think about the infantilizing of brands, why every shop-shop looks the same, and Millennial rebranding
1. Advanced civilizations reach peaks where needs are fulfilled yet cause other problems. In food, for example, obesity; due to our efficiencies in ag and politicized meddling in food access, we are overfed. So needs move beyond access (look how much food I have), to psychographic audience needs such as niche fetishes and status (look at this exclusive brand). We’ve reached what I’ll call peak food.
2. CPG is no longer a Big Food insiders club. Anyone can start a food co. And a whole industry has cropped up around that to make money. What people don’t realize is most brands do not make money. Very few have exits. Most distributors and grocers lose money on failed brands. So they charge like crazy to everyone, to eek out a profit overall. But society wants status, new-new variety, and that’s where influencers and the creator economy come in, and packaging and messaging starts to look the same. From Inmar:
84% of consumers will try new products in the spring — many will look to social media, and specifically creator content, for guidance and recommendations.
Egg prices, and why this might be the last time herds get wiped out
We’ve been through three major egg supply crisis this century due to avian flu. This one might be the worst. I talked to a major egg producer that has just 20% of their herd left in CA. Here’s why he said this very likely won’t happen again.
For the first time, the layer (eggs), broiler (meat production chickens,) and dairy (cows) industries have coordinated in favor of vaccination, that will protect against avian flu. There is now ample political will to work together. Avian flu can be eliminated if regulatory agencies have authority to stockpile vaccines, conduct field trials, and enhance cross-species biosecurity. United Egg Producers are in DC making moves with the USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS).
Reformulate away from eggs?
That’s the question. Egg prices will remain high until Q4 2026 because it takes over a year to repopulate a herd. Historically, egg alternatives have been highly processed powders that are not beneficial to product quality. Clean ingredient alts like aquafaba promise better results. Still, reformulating carries its own costs, especially if you plan to go back to eggs when prices normalize. Reformulating away from eggs should be a strategic move you’d make irrespective of price.
Prices will come down, as shelled eggs are the bulk of the market.
Nearly ~70% of eggs are sold as shell eggs (whole eggs in the shell). Just 29% are breaker eggs (as ingredients like liquid, frozen, or powder)
Alts like Wunderegg (hard boiled equivalents) may gain traction, but likely remain expensive and niche.
Top 3 Amazon problems
Many of you said the Amazon tips from the last post were great, but you’re struggling keeping up. When looking for help with Amazon, here is a list of the top 3 biggest maintenance and management challenges you want to ask about:
Inventory management and fulfillment, including Amazon’s strict inventory performance index (IPI) requirements affecting storage allocation
Avoiding, or staying on top of suppressed, deactivated, or flagged listings due to minor violations
Effective ads, and ranking organically without heavy ad spending
Trying to sell your small brand
If you’ve been running your brand for a while, need capital to grow and not getting it — so you want to sell — here are some words of wisdom and advice.
First, congratulations that you’ve made it this far. It is a big accomplishment that you have continued to make sales and keep up with production despite all the challenges of the past few years.
For small brands, a buyer will most likely be someone in your operations, like your co man, or another brand that uses your co man. It could be someone you get introduced to who already is doing a similar business and is a similar size or just a bit bigger. It might be more of a transfer of ownership over time, and less of a cash sale.
The reason I say that is because you’re not big enough to be of interest to a larger player that is looking for high gross margins, low CAC, and positive EBITDA. Teaming up with another company/ owner that can bring scale will help get the economics. You can offer equity and you can keep your role as head of marketing (or whatever you are best at).
It’s going to be like dating- you have to find a good match. Someone that sees value in your customer base. Important metrics are repeat and LTV. They see their portfolio of products cross selling to your audience- and vice versa - so know your Meta audience. There are no rules for your size. Might not be any cash sale, but potential to be a bigger, more profitable co later. Unless you have profits, might not be anything to sell right now.
Regarding the Super Bowl commercials
I was just confused.
The only other news is tariffs, obvi
Freaking out about tariffs is no joke —> historically, every $1 of U.S. agricultural exports results in over $2 in additional domestic economic activity, and a lot is exported: Tulare County's most recent crop report says 68% of the county's pistachio exports go to China
Last time we had tariff retaliation, we got Market Facilitation.
I leave you with my latest yogurt mix in: basil seeds. Does not taste like basil. Just like chia but 2x the fiber, calcium, iron, and potassium. I have not tried this drink — anyone?
All my best,
Jennifer